R38 练习: 财务报表建模
考纲范围
- demonstrate the development of a sales-based pro forma company Model
- explain how behavioral factors affect analyst forecasts and recommend remedial actions for analyst biases
- explain how the competitive position of a company based on a Porter’s five forces analysis affects prices and costs
- explain how to forecast industry and company sales and costs when they are subject to price inflation or deflation
- explain considerations in the choice of an explicit forecast horizon and an analyst’s choices in developing projections beyond the short-term forecast horizon
Q1.
Analyst Elon has been following Gamma Inc, a leading electric vehicle manufacturer, for years. Its most recent financial data is shown below:
| 项目 | 金额 |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $500 million |
| COGS | $350 million |
| Gross profit | $150 million |
Elon is now forecasting Gamma’s gross profit for next year, he has made the following 3 assumptions:
- Price of aluminum, one of the major raw materials used in car bodies, will increase by 20% next year. The use of aluminum contributes about 5% to the total manufacturing cost of the car.
- Gamma will increase its sales price by 5% to transfer raw material inflation to customers.
- Sales quantity will remain at the current level.
Gamma’s next year’s gross profit will most likely be:
A. 20%
B. 30%
C. 32.7%
查看答案与解析
答案：C
解析：
计算过程：
当前毛利率 = 150/500 = 30%
明年：
- Revenue = 500 × 1.05 = $525M（价格涨5%，数量不变）
- COGS 中铝成本占 5%，铝价涨 20%：
- 铝成本增加 = 350 × 5% × 20% = $3.5M
- New COGS = 350 + 3.5 = $353.5M
- Gross Profit = 525 - 353.5 = $171.5M
- Gross Profit Margin = 171.5/525 = 32.67% ≈ 32.7%
选项 判断 解析 A ✗ 20% 计算有误 B ✗ 30% 是当前毛利率 C ✓ 32.7% = 171.5/525 关联：R38: 财务报表建模
Q2.
An analyst collects information about Mars Home’s debt, interest income, and expenses from its balance sheet and income statement shown in the following table. What is the interest rate on the three-year average gross debt?
| ($ millions) | 31 Dec 20 | 31 Dec 21 | 31 Dec 22 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loan | 521 | 564 | 607 |
| Other non-current financial liabilities | 110 | 116 | 103 |
| Current financial liabilities | 178 | 161 | 157 |
| Gross debt | 809 | 841 | 867 |
| Less: cash, cash equivalents, and short-term financial assets | 219 | 188 | 236 |
| Net debt | 590 | 653 | 631 |
| Interest expense for 2022 | 48 |
A. 5.36% on the three-year average gross debt
B. 5.72% on the three-year average gross debt
C. 5.54% on the three-year average gross debt
查看答案与解析
答案：B
解析：
计算过程：
Three-year average gross debt = (809 + 841 + 867) / 3 = 2,517 / 3 = $839M
Interest rate = Interest expense / Average gross debt = 48 / 839 = 5.72%
选项 判断 解析 A ✗ 5.36% 可能用了不同的分母 B ✓ 48/839 = 5.72% C ✗ 5.54% 计算有误 关联：R38: 财务报表建模
Q3.
Which of the following statements regarding base-rate neglect is least likely accurate?
A. Base-rate neglect is a common form of representativeness bias
B. Base-rate neglect is a phenomenon in that people neglect company-specific information in favor of industry averages
C. Considering both the outside view and the inside view is an effective way to mitigate base-rate neglect
查看答案与解析
答案：B
解析：
- A 正确：基率忽视确实是代表性偏差的一种常见形式
- B 错误：基率忽视恰恰相反 — 人们过度关注公司特定信息（inside view）而忽略行业基础比率/统计数据（outside view）
- C 正确：同时考虑外部视角和内部视角是缓解基率忽视的有效方法
选项 判断 解析 A ✗ 基率忽视是代表性偏差的形式，正确 B ✓ 描述反了，基率忽视是忽略基础比率而非公司信息 C ✗ 结合外部和内部视角确实有助于缓解 关联：R38: 财务报表建模
Q4.
Which of the following statements regarding the illusion of control bias is most likely accurate?
A. Illusion of control is also called anchoring and adjustment bias
B. Illusion of control is related to overconfidence and conservatism bias
C. Creating complex models is useful to mitigate the illusion of control bias
查看答案与解析
答案：B
解析：
- A 错误：控制幻觉和锚定偏差是不同的偏差
- B 正确：控制幻觉与过度自信和保守偏差相关，分析师认为自己可以控制或影响结果
- C 错误：创建复杂模型可能加剧控制幻觉（认为模型越复杂越能控制结果），不是缓解方法
选项 判断 解析 A ✗ 控制幻觉不等于锚定偏差 B ✓ 控制幻觉与过度自信和保守偏差相关 C ✗ 复杂模型可能加剧控制幻觉 关联：R38: 财务报表建模
Q5.
Vergil is researching Beta Co, a leading biopharmaceutical company. Beta’s detailed firm-specific information has been collected, including but not limited to its R&D expenditures, number of sales representatives, and gross profit margins for its major products. Data from comparable companies within the same industry have also been collected for comparison purposes. By doing so, Vergil will most likely mitigate which of the following bias?
A. conservatism Bias
B. base-rate neglect
C. confirmation Bias
查看答案与解析
答案：B
解析：Vergil 同时收集了公司特定信息（inside view）和行业可比公司数据（outside view），这种做法最有助于缓解基率忽视（base-rate neglect），因为他将公司分析与行业基准相结合。
选项 判断 解析 A ✗ 保守偏差是指对新信息反应不足 B ✓ 结合公司数据和行业数据缓解基率忽视 C ✗ 确认偏差是指只寻找支持自己观点的信息 关联：R38: 财务报表建模
Q6.
Michael Porter’s “five forces” framework includes all of the following elements except:
A. government regulation
B. intensity of rivalry
C. threat of substitute products
查看答案与解析
答案：A
解析：Porter 五力模型包括：
- Intensity of rivalry（行业内竞争强度）
- Threat of new entrants（新进入者威胁）
- Threat of substitute products（替代品威胁）
- Bargaining power of suppliers（供应商议价能力）
- Bargaining power of buyers（买家议价能力）
政府监管（government regulation）不在五力之中。
选项 判断 解析 A ✓ 政府监管不在 Porter 五力框架中 B ✗ 竞争强度是五力之一 C ✗ 替代品威胁是五力之一 关联：R38: 财务报表建模
Q7.
From the perspective of company ABC, which of the following situations most likely indicates that the bargaining power of its suppliers is high?
A. The primary raw materials of ABC’s final products are marketable from multiple sources
B. The industry in which ABC operates is highly concentrated and a few players (including ABC) occupy almost 80% of the entire market share
C. One of the key components that ABC requires to manufacture its products can only be imported from a licensed manufacturer
查看答案与解析
答案：C
解析：
- A：原材料可从多个来源获得 → 供应商议价能力低
- B：行业集中度高说明的是买方或行业竞争者的情况，不直接说明供应商议价能力
- C：关键零部件只能从一家授权制造商获得 → 供应商议价能力高
选项 判断 解析 A ✗ 多来源供应降低供应商议价能力 B ✗ 行业集中度高不直接说明供应商议价能力 C ✓ 单一供应商来源表明供应商议价能力高 关联：R38: 财务报表建模
Q8.
Which of the following statements regarding price-volume trade-off in terms of revenue projections is most likely correct?
A. As long as analysts understand the relationship between price and volume, they can accurately forecast revenue and profit.
B. In a price-rising market, if a company raises the price of its products too late, it will suffer a drop in sales volume.
C. Reactions of volume to price changes depend on factors such as price elasticity, actions taken by competitors, and availability of substitutes.
查看答案与解析
答案：C
解析：
- A 错误：即使理解价量关系，也不能保证准确预测，还有许多其他影响因素
- B 错误：在价格上涨市场中，推迟涨价不一定导致销量下降
- C 正确：销量对价格变化的反应取决于价格弹性、竞争对手行为和替代品可获得性
选项 判断 解析 A ✗ 理解价量关系不能保证准确预测 B ✗ 涨价推迟不一定导致销量下降 C ✓ 价量关系受弹性、竞争和替代品等多因素影响 关联：R38: 财务报表建模
Q9.
When projecting a company’s long-term performance, one should concentrate on normalized earnings. Which of the following statements regarding normalized earnings is most likely incorrect? Normalized earnings:
A. represent a company’s mid-cycle earnings.
B. are helpful for analysts to further predict normalized free cash flow.
C. take unusual and temporary factors into consideration.
查看答案与解析
答案：C
解析：正常化收益（Normalized earnings）的特点：
- 代表公司周期中期的收益水平（A 正确）
- 有助于预测正常化的自由现金流（B 正确）
- 排除异常和暂时性因素，而非”将其纳入考虑”（C 错误）
选项 判断 解析 A ✗ 正常化收益确实代表中周期收益 B ✗ 正常化收益确实有助于预测正常化FCF C ✓ 正常化收益应排除异常因素，而非纳入 关联：R38: 财务报表建模